No. 4 – Protectionism And Anti-Trade Policy
President Donald Trump isn’t so much anti-trade as he is against multi-lateral trade agreements, says Valliere.
“The president’s comments make it clear that he’s looking to kill NAFTA,” said Valliere. “He feels that people in places like Bethlehem, Pa. and Youngstown, Ohio have been hurt badly by these trade deals, but if he gets us out of them, there will be a lot of victims. Scuttling NAFTA will be a negative story for agriculture. Exiting the Trans-Pacific Partnership creates a vacuum in Asia that China will gladly fill.”
As U.S. policy trends towards trade protectionism, Valliere believes that other countries will begin to retaliate with barriers of their own, which could unsettle financial markets.
No. 5 – The Weakening Of Political Institutions
The election of outsider candidates like Donald Trump is a signal of the weakness of both major American political parties, said Valliere.
“Both parties have a lot of problems,” he said. “The Republicans are close to civil war, Steve Bannon is going after legislators by trying to get his own populist nationals nominated, which will make life more difficult for Mitch McConnell.”
As the investigation into Russian interference into the 2016 presidential campaign, and potential collusion with Russian interests by White House associates, congressional Republicans may soon face the difficult choice of whether to attempt to impeach a sitting president from their own party.
Democrats, on the other hand, have failed to build a future for their party, said Valliere.
“They have no new ideas, and an elderly group of leaders in the party,” he said. So great is the leadership vacuum in the Democratic Party that Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren could soon emerge as a favorite for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination. “She’s an electrifying demagogue who hates our industry and feels that we’re corrupt and greedy. She represents a real threat to our industry.”
No. 6 – As The World Turns
“You have to be concerned about two-to-three things,” said Valliere. “Most importantly, North Korea and the Middle East.”
Valliere says that there’s a one-in-five chance that war eventually breaks out between North Korea and the U.S. More concerning is the emerging bipolarity in the Middle East, where Shi’ite Muslim-led Iran and Sunni Muslim-led Saudi Arabia are competing for influence.
“Rest assured that there are millions of people in the world who would be thrilled to kill everyone in this room tonight,” he said. “We have to acknowledge that we’re a little too trusting and naïve.”