Manufacturing is a more difficult case to predict. Weaker overseas markets, disruption of supply chains and reduced demand from a host of industries point to an enduring slowdown. But increased tensions with China might result in a push for reshoring production. And if people stay home more, that could result in increased demand for appliances, home furnishings and so on.
Air travel is another hard call. Passenger traffic is all but nonexistent, though it’s not clear that this is a permanent state of affairs. Advances in teleworking technologies and business models might depress the demand for business travel, but tourism seems likely to rebound after the pandemic.
So big changes are ahead for many U.S. industries. Practically everything that depends on foot traffic will take a hit. The shift toward conducting business and shopping online will intensify, and businesses that were already under pressure from digital competition will have trouble bouncing back. In these strange and perilous times, only the clever, innovative and lucky will flourish.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.