With the stock market reviving, certain sectors are primed to outperform others, according to Simon Webber, portfolio manager of the Hartford Schroders International Stock Fund.
Covid-19 is having a profound, mostly negative impact on the economy, but e-commerce, technology and electric vehicles are some of the sectors best-positioned to prevail, Webber said.
“This is a unique recession in which you cannot rely on history,” Webber explained in an interview with Financial Advisor magazine. “In the current environment, you have to use common sense.”
The National Bureau of Economic Research on Tuesday said the economy is in a recession, although the country has not seen two quarters of a downturn as yet, which is the traditional definition of a recession. The decline that started with the spread of the coronavirus in February ended the longest bull market in history, the bureau noted. The economy can be in negative territory even as the stock market is rising.
The current market chaos has hit some sectors of the economy particularly hard, including airlines, retail and the hospitality industry. Some of it, such as business travel, is probably not going to come back, Webber said, but other sectors are responding well to the changes. Sectors such as technology, including software that allows employees to work remotely, will have strong tailwinds.
“Environmental technology, infrastructure for electricity production, electric vehicles and renewable energy will be strong areas of recovery,” Webber added. “It is dangerous to make too many generalizations about a sector because within sectors there will be winners and losers.”
Covid-19 has pushed some trends already underway before this year into high gear, such as a shift to online shopping that was impacting retail. A number of retail companies have gone under during recent months, but those with a strong online presence, along with a good business plan, can flourish, Webber said. The remaining retail businesses also will have the advantage of less competition.
“In a recession, the exit of marginal players creates strong opportunities for ones with good business plans,” Webber said. “The use of fintech and such things as electronic payments will be accelerated. There will be permanent changes in the way people work and travel. We will all need to adapt.”