From Bentley to BMW, Polestar to Porsche, new-car sales have slumped in 2020.
Sales of classic cars, on the other hand, have remained positively stable.
“2020 was a very strange year: There was a lot of appetite” to buy cars, says Brian Rabold, vice president of valuation services at Hagerty, a company that insures classic and collectible cars. The proliferation of online platforms from auction houses and startups alike enabled consumer hunger. “A lot of people had more time, they weren’t traveling, they weren’t leaving the house. You could just sit in front of the computer and shop. All of that conspired to make 2020 really strong.”
Gooding & Co. auction house reported $9.2 million in sales and a respectable 77% sell-through for its Geared online auction, which saw blue-chip classics like the $1.14 million 1957 Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing hammer well within its pricing estimates. At Bring a Trailer, founder Randy Nonnenberg reported his highest-ever day for traffic amid some of the darkest days of the coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile, on the private car market, Steve Serio, automotive broker to stand-up stars and the publicity-shy, will have his best year ever “in terms of cars worth more than $1 million,” he says.
“In unstable times, car people tend to hang onto their blue-chip cars and get other ones, so there’s a lot of interest that has picked up there,” Rabold agrees. “Private sales are happening.”
That confidence bodes well for the classic car market next year. Rabold and a team of 18 Hagerty analysts combined data from auction and private sales, classified ads, insurance quotes, demographic charts that measure youth appeal, and even statistics about imports and exports to develop a list of the 10 collectable cars they expect will enjoy double-digit value growth in 2021.
The so-called “Bull List” includes everything from a Jaguar that debuted in 1948 to a hot rod Jeep. Each of the vehicles below is expected to far outpace anything else in its segment in terms of value.
Not on the list: old American muscle cars and the 1970s-era Porsche 911 Turbos that have dominated private car sales and public car auctions in recent years.
“Something like the Turbo 911 is a great example of a car that has enjoyed its ride and has been a big winner for the last couple years, but for now a lot of those are fully priced,” Rabold says. “It doesn’t mean five years from now, it won’t appreciate wildly again.”
Lexus LFA
Years to buy: 2011–12
Notes: The two-seater is basically an oddball, front-engined, exotic-style supercar with a 552-horsepower V10 engine and video-game styling. When it debuted in 2011, it was unlike anything at the time from Italy or Germany. Unlike anything from Toyota, either. “If Godzilla and a PlayStation got together to make a car, this would be it,” Hagerty notes. It’s one of the few supercars Toyota has ever produced, and it can go more than 200 mph.