In the RethinkX scenario, the overall economic impact will be positive. Cheaper transport will put $1 trillion a year more into consumer pockets, and presuming we do useful stuff in the time not driving, productivity gains will add another $1 trillion.

As someone who has spent too much time in cars, ferrying children and commuting, this all sounds great, if optimistic, but from the point of view of investment portfolio construction it would represent a seemingly unprecedented risk.

Not only is this transformation supposed to happen on a much tighter timeline than the one from buggy and rail to automobile, but the sunk costs of the existing infrastructure, supply chains and jobs is a much bigger part of the economy.

Many of those people who used to grow our food have seen their labor absorbed in the transport industry, broadly defined, which represents a staggering investment in existing capital.

“In the U.S., an estimated 65 percent of shale oil and tight oil—which under a “business as usual” scenario could make up over 70 percent of the U.S. supply in 2030—would no longer be commercially viable,” according to the report.

Car manufacturing revenue will fall to less than 20 percent of 2015 levels by 2030, as those cars which are bought do more service thus leading to a need for fewer units. The impact on supply chains, natural resource use and commodity markets may make the crisis faced by the auto industry during the Great Recession look tame.

The insurance industry will be in the line of fire both as a provider of services and as a long-term investor in industries hurt by the changes. Automated cars will have far fewer accidents, the study argues, leading revenue to insurance companies from car travel to fall by more than 70 percent in the 15 years to 2030. Those same insurance companies also own a lot of the debt and equity of companies which will be hurt by this transformation.

Used car sales are forecast to fall from $111 billion a year in 2015 to nothing in 2030, which will certainly hurt the value of some asset-backed debt, to put it mildly.

Think too about the entire travel hospitality ecosystem; fewer nights in roadside hotels, fewer nights perhaps in city-center hotels if travelers choose to return home via overnight trips.

Many of these assumptions will doubtless prove far off the mark, or even possibly wrong, but it strikes me that with the exception of some pie-in-sky valuations for companies like Tesla, the overall market is a long way from discounting the potential price and volatility effects of a positive, but hugely disruptive set of changes.