As if these challenges and unknowns were not tricky enough, there is also a long list of non-conventional macro issues to consider. Whether the increasingly important Chinese economy can be better integrated into the global economy remains to be seen. It is anyone’s guess what twists and turns the pandemic will take. Will Omicron quickly become the new dominant variant, or will it be supplanted by yet another one?
And what about other major threats such as the silent pandemic of antimicrobial resistance or the risks associated with climate change? As matters stand, it seems unlikely that voters – particularly older cohorts on limited or fixed incomes – will tolerate repeated hikes in energy price, even if they are a necessary feature of the transition to cleaner alternatives. As I recently suggested, policymakers will need to think creatively about how to deal with this problem.
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK treasury minister, is a member of the Pan-European Commission on Health and Sustainable Development.