A recession in China, amplified by a financial crisis, would constitute the third leg of the debt supercycle that began in the United States in 2008 and moved to Europe in 2010. Up to this point, the Chinese authorities have done a remarkable job in postponing the inevitable slowdown. Unfortunately, when the downturn arrives, the world is likely to discover that China’s economy matters even more than most people thought.
Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," his new book, "The Curse of Cash," was released in August 2016.