Not long ago, such futuristic software seemed, if not quite impossible, at least 30 years away. Given the pace of research, however, that’s no longer the case—a fact that has given the effort by Musk, Goose and others new urgency.
“It seems that each year, that estimate has come down,” Goose said. Autonomous weapons systems are “years, not decades” hence, he said in an interview last month from Geneva, where a UN group convened its fifth annual conference on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems.
Much of the recent discussion has focused on defining the terms of debate and where human control for lethal decisions should lie. There are also questions as to how quickly such machines will proliferate and how to deal with such technology in the hands of rogue, non-state actors.
Over time, Goose said, the campaign will “convince these governments that every nation is going to be better off if no nation has these weapons.” But Scharre said there’s no chance the UN will agree to a legally binding treaty to ban autonomous weapons. He predicts that “a critical mass” of nations supporting some type of ban could pursue an agreement outside the UN.
While proponents may argue that autonomous robot soldiers will shield soldiers from harm, they will also remove the bloody consequences of armed conflict, a knowledge that “puts a valuable brake on the horrors of war,” said Scharre, a former Army Ranger.
“There’s a value of someone being able to appreciate the human consequences of war,” he said. “A world without that could be potentially more harmful. If we went to war and no one slept uneasy at night, what does that say about us?”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.