Kora began investing in Sea in early 2018 after meeting with Li, Daniel Jacobs, the hedge fund’s founding partner, said in an interview. “We’ve seen over the last two years a company that’s got a great team and great products going after a big market and just executing incredibly well,” he said. “We think this is a mini Tencent and has the ability to be a really successful, large company in a global context.”
Sea has already claimed the title of biggest company in Southeast Asia after its market value swelled to $65 billion, topping DBS Group Holdings Ltd. and PT Bank Central Asia for the first time earlier this year. Revenue has also grown quickly, jumping 163% to $2.2 billion in 2019, though it’s still just a fraction of DBS’s $11 billion.
Sea is now the biggest listed company in Southeast Asia
As for Sea’s $1.46 billion net loss last year? Jacobs isn’t bothered by it. “They are thoughtful and prudent about building a business,” he said. “We are very much of the view that the company has all this under control.”
Not everyone is convinced.
DBS Bank Ltd. analyst Sachin Mittal downgraded his recommendation on Sea to sell in July, citing Indonesia’s new tax regulations for cross-border transactions and the likelihood of the company burning through cash to grow its payments business. “There is a tech bubble right now,” he said in an interview. “Sea’s stock is overvalued and it’s partly a reflection of the industry.”
While short sellers have closed out bets against Sea at a rapid clip in recent weeks, they still have a bearish position worth more than $3 billion, or about 8% of the stock’s free float, according to S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm. “Mark-to-market losses may have forced shorts out of their position,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3. “But they may still have a negative outlook.”
Skeptics note that Sea faces deep-pocketed competitors in all of its main businesses, from Lazada to Grab Holdings Inc. and a slew of other up-and-comers in digital finance. Meanwhile, Sea’s gaming unit has yet to prove it’s more than just a one-hit wonder.
“We could have a post-Covid situation where the jack-up in revenue does not materialize, and the gaming business is doing well but rests on only one popular game,” said Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, head of consumer equity research at Tellimer Ltd.
Sea optimists see little reason to cash in. In fact, Georg Krijgh, founder and head of the investment team at Amsterdam-based Fratres, said his firm’s Knight Tech Fund, which has 150 million euros ($177 million) under management, plans to add to its Sea holdings.
The stock is already the fund’s second-largest position after Shopify Inc., a Canadian e-commerce company that has gained more than 500% in the past 18 months. “There are always people who like to short excellent companies such as Sea, Tesla or Carvana, mainly based on the argument of a high valuation,” he said. “It’s an inferior strategy.”