While military conflicts fuel these changes, natural disasters can, too. Consider the earthquake that hit San Francisco in 1906. A group of genealogists researching the event recently noticed that while the quake may have reduced the city to rubble, it apparently sparked a wave of marriages in the month afterward as men and women thrown together in refugee camps fell in love—and immediately married.
This was captured in the number of marriage licenses issued in San Francisco in the month after the quake. And it was also reflected in more subtle evidence, such as urgent orders from jewelers for shipments of engagement rings. All of this made for surreal juxtapositions, with couples starting out their lives together against the backdrop of ruins and destruction. One newspaper, commenting on the spectacle, quipped that “people who have to be earthquaked into marriage ought not to be thrown into the divorce court by any less cataclysm.”
This same pattern has held in other natural disasters. While there’s relatively little academic literature on the topic, two intriguing studies on the effects of earthquakes in China and Hurricane Hugo in Florida found much the same thing: statistically significant increases in both marriage and divorce. In the case of Florida, the researchers persuasively showed how counties in the state declared “disaster areas” had far greater levels of matrimonial churn than those spared the worst effects of the hurricane.
What's less well understood—though no less important—is the quality of the unions forged in the shadow of a disaster, whether it’s an economic calamity, a war or a pandemic. What little research that exists suggests that disasters created by fellow humans—terrorist attacks like the Oklahoma City Bombing or 9/11, for example—actually depresses divorce rates in areas directly affected by the calamity. By contrast, natural disasters seem to fuel both divorce and marriages.
All of this suggests that the Covid-19 pandemic may well have lasting impacts on the marital status of many Americans. It may speed some divorces, yes. But that's countered by the huge swell of weddings across the country that we're beginning to see. And that may even lead to a baby boom that could help slow the long-term declines in fertility—though that’s a more open question.
Whether these marriages last, though, is another matter. And on that note, it’s worth considering one final piece of research on weddings conducted by two economists. They found that the money couples spent on wedding rings and the ceremony itself was inversely related to the long-term viability of the marriage. The more ostentatious the wedding, the less likely it would endure.
If you’re invited to a post-pandemic wedding, then, don’t worry if it’s a simple, understated, inexpensive affair. These are the couples whose unions are most likely stand the test of time, no matter what disasters await us in the coming years.
Stephen Mihm, a professor of history at the University of Georgia, is a contributor to Bloomberg Opinion.