From canceling Friday night trips to the pub to pushing back soccer practice, global investors are pulling out all the stops to ensure they’re ready for the most important gathering of central bankers this year.
Min Gyeong-won is taking no chances as the countdown begins to the Federal Reserve’s landmark Jackson Hole event, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to restate his resolve to fight inflation and push back against bets he will take his foot off the pedal next year.
Instead of chowing down on fugu -- a delicacy involving poisonous blowfish -- and enjoying Happy Hour at Busan Bokjib in Seoul, he’ll be glued to his screens as Powell takes center stage.
“This is more important than jobs data in the US, and even more than previous Jackson Hole meetings,” the economist at Woori Bank said. “Usually there are meetings in the pub on Thursday or Friday night, but I’m not going to make an appointment tonight.”
Min is not alone.
Pub Meetings
Market participants from Tokyo to Sydney are axing dinner plans and sacrificing weekend activities to prep for what could be a rocky Monday trading session if Powell’s comments reshape views on the path of monetary tightening around the globe.
Recent market action underscores trader nervousness: Global stocks slumped at the beginning of the week before attempting a tentative recovery and bond yields have pushed higher. The closely-watched Cboe Volatility Index jumped from a mid-August slumber.
Powell’s speech will land late in the evening for Tellimer’s Nirgunan Tiruchelvam in Singapore, so he’s aiming to kill two birds with one stone -- attempt to enjoy his evening at the pub while keeping tabs on markets.
“I am preparing for Jackson Hole by checking the watering holes of Boat Quay a bit longer than my usual time,” said the head of consumer equity research in Singapore. “Some of my clients from hedge funds and long-only ones will be joining me in this quest.”
That’s not an option for Brian Gould in Melbourne, who is staying up for late meetings with peers in London and the US to help monitor markets in the event Powell’s speech spikes volatility.
“It’ll be midnight Sydney time and it’s not ideal, but you do what you have to do,” said the head of trading at Capital.com. He plans to arrive at his Collins Street office before dawn on Monday. “Monday could be quite different from the action overnight -- we’ve seen clients taking positions off the table into Jackson Hole.”
Five thousand miles away in Tokyo, Masahiro Yamaguchi is equally on alert. The senior market analyst at SMBC Trust Bank even rescheduled his regular soccer practice on Saturday to prep for a potentially hectic Monday.
“There is always soccer practice on Saturday morning, but tomorrow morning I will check Jackson Hole first,” he said. “I want to distribute the information on Monday morning, so I will be working Sunday afternoon as well this weekend.”