With a statement lasting only a few minutes, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi unleashed an impeachment inquiry that has the potential to move the price of everything from soybeans to stocks, bonds and the U.S. dollar.
The only problem? Figuring out in which direction all those prices will move. Traders will have their work cut out for them when assessing the impact of this new effort to dethrone an unpredictable leader who has influenced markets like no other U.S. president before him -- and who already has survived several mortal threats to his presidency. Despite a newly-released memo recounting a phone call in which President Donald Trump asked his Ukrainian counterpart to investigate Democratic rival Joe Biden, what lies ahead in politics -- and markets -- is far from certain.
“You can’t trade this stuff right now, it’s impossible,” Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors LLC, told Bloomberg TV. “There’s so many different scenarios. Does this support Biden? Does it hurt Biden? Does this support (Elizabeth) Warren? Ultimately if her momentum keeps building, what happens to Trump? If impeachment goes through, is it ever going to become a reality with the Senate being Republican-controlled? There’s so many different scenarios, you almost have to just ignore it and keep just investing the way you would.”
While this may be sound advice, ignoring this soap opera is not an option for many on Wall Street, especially as the crucial fourth quarter approaches. Investors and analysts have been busy cranking out trade ideas to profit from the latest and most dramatic act in the drama that has been Trump’s presidency.
Still About Trade
Perhaps the biggest question is how the impeachment drive will affect Trump’s trade war with China. Stocks and bond yields reached their highs of the day on Wednesday after Trump said a trade deal could happen sooner than people think. On Tuesday, Trump’s stern words toward China in a speech at the United Nations and reports that Pelosi was considering impeachment triggered a sell-off in stocks and gains in bonds.
“The reaction yesterday was investors putting themselves in the shoes of Chinese negotiators and saying ‘If I’m sitting across the table and I’m one of the Chinese negotiators, my position, relatively speaking, just got a lot stronger,’” said Shawn Cruz, manager of trader strategy at TD Ameritrade.
There is little consensus on how the political ramifications play out, especially when it comes to the trade war. Still, many analysts and investors agree on a few things. For one, while the House of Representatives could vote to impeach Trump, the Republican-led Senate is unlikely to remove him from office since it would take 67 votes -- including at least 20 of the Republican senators -- to do so. In the meantime, other initiatives in Washington -- say, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact or proposals to reduce prescription drug prices -- could get stalled until it all plays out. If Bill Clinton’s impeachment is any guide, this could be a months-long process.
At RBC Capital Markets, analyst Brian Abrahams wrote that an overhaul of drug prices is unlikely now, and that may give a boost to biotechnology companies that have largely sat out this year’s rally in stocks.
“Legislating is dead,” Raymond James policy analyst Ed Mills wrote in a note.