One gauge of the compensation investors demand to hold longer-term Treasuries versus rolling over short-dated obligations, known as the term premium, is near record lows -- underscoring the intense conviction in the low-rate, lowflation era in markets. Over in Europe, the ask yield on Swiss bonds due 2064 even fell below zero percent last week.

It’s easy to see why bulls have taken control across the developed world.

For years, bearish prognostications have proved off the mark, with everything from global savings and ageing populations to monetary shifts depressing yields. Now, geopolitical risk, central banks in dovish mode and the ageing business cycle are reinforcing the bullish moorings in global debt.

But just look at the math. The Macaulay duration on a Bloomberg Barclays sovereign-debt index is near a record high of 8.32 years, meaning just a one-percentage-point increase in yields would equate to more than a $2.4 trillion loss.

Nasty surprises could be in store for those who think they’re boarding a one-way train. The U.S. is willing to suspend the next round of tariffs on an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports while Beijing and Washington prepare to resume negotiations, people familiar with the plans said. In an interview with CNBC, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sounded an optimistic note that a deal could be reached.

The prospect of easing tensions in global commerce is one thing keeping Pimco from duration overweights, despite the firm’s conviction that the Federal Reserve is at the peak of its hiking cycle.

"We are broadly neutral in the near term as there’s still a lot of uncertainty," said Nicola Mai, a portfolio manager at Pimco in London. "The Fed might stay on hold if there is positive development."

Trade deal or not, Lombard Odier sees any rise in yields as a buying opportunity.

“Rates sell-offs are a bigger risk when we get tightening,” said Salman Ahmed, the firm’s chief global strategist. “In the next few months, we are likely to see almost every central bank easing.”

Over at Amundi Asset Management London, extended duration in the market isn’t keeping Laurent Crosnier awake at night. But he’s pondering a longer-term tail risk: Central-bank impotence in boosting growth could even spark a sell off one day.