Or so I argued. As it turned out, the election was much closer than originally reported. Swaying 77,774 people across three states might have been all that the Russians needed to do to nudge the outcome in the direction they wanted, favoring Trump. Last month, a Senate report concluded that Instagram, a unit of Facebook, was an even “bigger Russian tool than Facebook itself.”
I’m still going to count this one as probably, rather than definitively, wrong.
2. Don’t be afraid of October: At the start of that ill-starred month I wrote that investors should worry about September more than October, based on historical performance. Equity markets promptly went straight down, continuing to fall for the next three months, declining almost 20 percent. This was, of course, a discussion of probable outcomes, not a straight-up forecast. Just because the dice come up snake eyes doesn’t mean the math was wrong. Still, this time October was worse than September.
3. There’s nothing old about this bull market: The discussions about the age of bull markets are so silly. Age isn’t what ends bull markets, nor is there anything magical about a 20 percent decline as an indicator that a bear market has started.
Now we get to argue whether the recent 19.78 percent retreat (on a closing basis, not intraday) was indeed the end of the long bull market. Never mind that the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq 10 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 all suffered declines of more than 20 percent peak to trough. With three major indexes down more than 20 percent, we’re now officially into cyclical bear-market territory. Whether the longer-term secular bull market is over has yet to be determined.
4. Apple magazine cover indicator. I am fond of pointing out that certain indicators that work with entire indexes or markets do not work with single companies: To wit, the Apple magazine cover indicator. As I noted, in one form or another Apple Inc., former Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs or current CEO Tim Cook have been on countless covers over the years. Cherry-picking those that precede a share decline while ignoring the rest amid years of huge gains is an inane exercise.
That’s my list for 2018. Check back next year — the odds are pretty good there will be plenty of new errors to own up to.
This column was provided by Bloomberg News.