That has other economists concerned.
“Trump’s protectionist push risks fueling tariff retaliation, which could hit U.S. growth,” Thomas Costerg, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, wrote in a July 28 research note. “The U.S. president has wide unilateral powers regarding international trade, making it one area where Trump’s agenda could indeed be applied, unlike other matters, which mostly need congressional approval,” Costerg added.
Another Trump plan -- and the one roiling economists from across the spectrum -- is to rip up trade agreements and pull out of international memberships, including Nafta, the International Trade Commission, World Trade Organization and the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership deal now languishing in Congress.
Potential Fallout
“It’s like breaking up a marriage when you break up a free-trade agreement,” said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “It’s not just between the husband and wife but all the other relationships that go with it -- the kids, the friends, the house, the 401(k).” Similarly, businesses would have to deal with disruptions up and down supply chains and a great amount of uncertainty, he said.
Harris notes that while China’s short-cutting is a “legitimate concern,” the charge of currency manipulation is outdated, and assailing all trade deals on this worry is overdone.
To the Trump camp, the divorce has been a long time coming and worth what they calculate will merely be near-term disruptions.
“The pain will be short-lived,” said DiMicco, because the U.S. will get China to change its behavior.
Steel Industry
For DiMicco, who has written two books on how to make U.S. manufacturing flourish, Trump’s economic platform is both business and personal. As chief of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor, he faults trade deals for the industry’s ills as companies relocated overseas. Because China doesn’t play by the rules, the U.S. can’t benefit from productivity-inducing advances in technology.