People, must we go over this yet again?
I have gently chided you over the years not to allow politics to infect your investment portfolios. Obviously, this was to no avail based on a Bloomberg News article earlier this week with the headline “Republican Voters Bet on Stocks After Trump’s Win. Democrats Didn’t.”
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised, since it’s clear that so much — no, too much — human behavior is based more on feeling than thinking. Still, color me disappointed.
The Bloomberg article focused on a study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, laying out how political party affiliation affected household investment choices. After Donald Trump won the November 2016 presidential election, half the country was elated while the other half was depressed. That is expected in politics. But here is where things changed for the better or worse, depending upon how you voted. The research found:
Republicans increase the exposure of their investments to the U.S. stock market relative to Democrats following the election. Democrats increase their relative holdings of bonds and cash-like securities.
You read that right: For no other reason other than the outcome of the presidential election, Republicans bought more stocks, while Democrats shifted to bonds and cash.
Even worse, this was not a one-time allocation shift. Instead, it was driven by “active trading over a six-month horizon following the election.” The study noted that the relative change in equity shares was “twice as large among previously active investors.” Not only was there an asset allocation shift, but these investors traded more actively for the two quarters after the election.
Again, I must ask why the outcome of any presidential contest should lead to a belief that the correct strategy was to increase one’s day trading.
Let us assume that perspective and sentiment were the key drivers, with different people holding very different worldviews — about the effects of tax cuts and deregulation, or a more muscular U.S. trade policy, or how well the domestic economy will respond to all of these inputs. Those different belief systems manifest themselves as different portfolio allocations.
To my Republican friends, I say, “Congrats. Good results for the wrong reason — you should just remember that you’re lucky, not smart.” To my Democratic friends, I say, “Come on. How could you? You missed out on some great gains out of partisan spite.”