Private economists see a 30% chance of an actual recession in the next year, and the median forecast calls for a one percentage point drop in growth, to 2%, in next year’s second quarter.
“If unemployment is still below 4% and the growth rate still above 3% he is not going to lose,” Luntz said.
Different Campaign
Trump intends to run a much different race than his 2016 campaign, when the reality TV star announced his insurgent candidacy by gliding down the golden escalator at Trump Tower in New York. He is now a politician, with a record to defend and accountability for the domestic economy and international affairs.
His 2020 campaign is a more professional outfit than in 2016 with 80 employees already and $41 million in the bank. The campaign aims to have 2 million volunteers in the field by election day.
His campaign launch on Tuesday will be an all-day event at Orlando’s Amway Center arena called “45 Fest,” highlighted by a rally that’s expected to draw at least 20,000 people. While the prime-time rally will draw media attention to the president and motivate supporters, the event is also a massive data-collection operation.
To get tickets, audience members have to provide the campaign valid email addresses and phone numbers. To ensure the phone numbers are accurate -- an aggravation for political campaigns -- rally-goers must confirm their tickets by providing a five-digit code sent to their mobile phones.
The campaign is hoping to cement Trump’s grip on Florida before his Democratic challenger even has staff in the state.
Demography Challenge
Demography also works against the president. Non-college educated whites, who overwhelmingly supported Trump, are shrinking as a proportion of the population. They made up 44.7% of eligible voters in 2016 but will fall to about 40% by 2020, according to a projection by William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.