Washington is “stimulating like crazy” with lower interest rates, lower taxes and increased spending, said Valliere.

“It’s naïve to think that the Fed is not aware of the Trump tweets,” said Valliere. “I think he at least has a subliminal impact on their thinking. I think the Fed remains remarkably accommodative.”

And the current amount of fiscal stimulus, with a $1 trillion-plus deficit, is “unprecedented,” said Valliere. Both political parties are behaving “like Keynesian drunks.”

But all that fiscal stimulus will result in tepid GDP growth of 1.5% to 1.75%, said Valliere, “not what the President was looking for, but he may be stuck with that.”

Any readings of Trump’s re-election chances are clouded by the dominant narrative in American politics: impeachment.

“I do think he will get impeached before Christmas by the House,” said Valiere. “I give it an 80% chance. Evidence keeps piling up and piling up – but the big story is the Senate trial. It’s going to be very difficult to get 66 Senators to vote to convict – it means you need at least 20 defections among Republicans… I don’t think the votes are going to be there.”

But Republican sentiment on impeachment may shift if the polls change and their majority in the Senate appears at risk, said Vallliere, because Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and others see the Senate as the ultimate firewall against liberal policy from the House of Representatives and a potential Warren or Sanders presidency. The Senate has also opened up a pipeline of new, young, conservative judges that McConnell will not want to risk.

Even if Trump is impeached, he can still prevail, said Valliere, but Republicans might want to pay closer attention to the possibility that they will lose the Senate.

“Right now it’s 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and based on my sense, the Republicans will keep the Senate,” said Valliere. “That’s crucial for the markets: if Warren or even Biden should win and both houses turn Democratic, then you have to worry about Medicare for all and a lot of legislation that might not be market friendly.”

Outside of elections, Valliere also said that he is concerned about rising geopolitical risks surrounding trade, Brexit, the Hong Kong protests and especially the Middle East.