The latest data from Columbia Threadneedle’s “Return to Normal Index” reported that, in just eight weeks, the Omicron variant knocked eight points off the index’s high, though it remained roughly on even footing with last summer.

As of Jan. 15, the day-to-day activities of U.S. residents were at 79% of pre-pandemic levels, a drop from the 87% high logged in early Dec. 2021, the report said, but right around the 80% of last June.

Omicron was the primary driver of the disruption, as consumers reduced in-person activities like dining in restaurants, air travel and entertainment events, the report stated, adding that as the highly transmissible variant infected communities, more workers called in sick and put additional strain on the kinds of industries that are tracked in the Index. “Restaurants had to close temporarily, airlines canceled flights through the holidays and manufacturers were forced to slow production lines as companies struggled to maintain staffing,” the report said.

In an attempt to understand the impact that the Covid-19 pandemic was having on U.S. businesses, Columbia Threadneedle back in the summer of 2020 developed an index that ignored big economic indicators like GDP growth and instead focused on the smaller details of how Americans live their lives. Retail spending, visiting restaurants and coffee shops, indoor sporting event and concert attendance, and in-person schooling and commuting to an office all have their place in the Return to Normal Index, the report said.

Back in December, at the last publishing of an update, Omicron had just appeared on the scene, and the analysts at Columbia Threadneedle said then they needed a few more weeks to see the impact.  “Return to work saw the greatest decline since our December update because many firms delayed their return to office plans and an increasing number of people began to work from home again,” the report said. “The data on returning to in-person schools has not changed; all major school districts are currently in person after Chicago returned to in-person learning in the second week of January, although many are offering hybrid options.”

Looking ahead, Columbia Threadneedle’s report included a three-pronged forecast: getting to the “normal” range might take until March in the best scenario, May in an average scenario and August in the worst scenario.

“Positive catalysts for activity levels include: greater clarity from health officials on how long infected individuals must quarantine, testing, longer term plans if the virus becomes endemic and removing mask mandates,” the report concluded. “A spike in hospitalizations or an overburdened healthcare system could cause health officials to reintroduce limits on activity. But this seems less likely in the current wave because of the oral antiviral therapies that can help reduce newly infected people’s chance of progressing to severe disease.

“As always, there’s the risk of new vaccine-evading variants emerging, which could impact our expected timeframe for reaching the normal range.”