President-elect Joe Biden plans to push for the most progressive climate policy the U.S. has ever had, aligning the world’s second-largest carbon emitter with a growing group of nations aggressively tackling global warming.
Biden has promised to rejoin the landmark Paris climate agreement on his first day in office, reversing the withdrawal orchestrated by President Donald Trump. He’s also called for the U.S. to have net-zero emissions by 2050, which would make it the last Group of Seven nation to set such a target.
The coming shift from the U.S. will cap a pivotal year for global climate policy that has already seen the European Union, China and others deepen their commitments to fighting climate change. Biden has called for the U.S. to have an emissions-free electric grid in 15 years, one of the most ambitious targets in the world. But his $2 trillion climate agenda will likely face opposition if Republicans retain control of the Senate, forcing him to rely on executive action.
This turnabout sets the stage for an accelerated global effort to combat climate change at a time when record-breaking heat, wildfires and hurricanes are battering communities from Louisiana to the Philippines. It’s also a dramatic reversal from Trump, who ended direct caps on methane emissions, relaxed national fuel-efficiency standards, scrapped the government’s long-range temperature forecasts and discouraged administration staff from publicly acknowledging climate change.
“It strikes me as going from hell to heaven,” said Robert Stavins, a Harvard University professor who’s advised both Republican and Democratic presidents on environmental policies. “It will be shocking to look at the White House and not be embarrassed.”
Biden’s victory will have “huge implications” for global climate diplomacy, said Alessandro Motta, an Italian diplomat who is helping to organize the COP26 meeting scheduled to take place in Glasgow next year. “All of a sudden we have a real possibility of success,” he said, adding that after the U.S. rejoins Paris it will be more difficult for countries such as Saudi Arabia that "have been hiding in the shadow of Trump" to continue dragging their feet on their commitments.
Biden’s climate agenda, if enacted, will for the first time help put the world within reach of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to Climate Action Tracker. The research group estimated that the U.S. setting a target for net-zero emissions by 2050 could reduce global warming by 0.1C by 2100.
Rejoining Paris will be easy for Biden, taking effect 30 days after he notifies the United Nations he wants to sign on again. But the next U.S. president will need to back that up with policies—and he needs to go big, said Alden Meyer, U.S. director for the International Climate Politics Hub. Simply reinstating the original climate targets from the Obama administration won’t be enough to impress allies like the EU, which is now aiming for a 55% emissions reduction by 2030. But Biden can build off Obama-era rules, such as fuel efficiency standards that would accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles, and create federal versions of existing state-level policies governing clean power.
Biden will also need to kick in some significant funding. Under President Obama, the U.S. pledged to contribute $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, a UN program to help developing nations transition to clean energy. Yet the U.S. paid only $1 billion of that before Trump took office in 2017 and hasn’t provided any since then, leaving a $2 billion shortfall.
Several nations, including France, the U.K. and Germany, have subsequently moved to double their initial pledges. To keep pace and re-establish the U.S. as a serious player in global climate efforts, Biden would need to offer another $6 billion, according to Meyer, for a total of $8 billion due.