Trade tensions likely helped push down U.S. economic growth last quarter to match the slowest pace of Donald Trump’s presidency, with a robust consumer keeping things from looking even worse.
Gross domestic product figures due Friday may show business investment posted the first decline in three years. Uncertainty from the yearlong U.S.-China tariff war compounded weakness stemming from slowing global growth and falling oil prices.
GDP rose 1.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, according to the median projection of analysts, which would be the slowest since 2017.
Net exports and inventories probably took a substantial bite in the April-June period, unwinding gains from the first quarter and reflecting fluctuations in companies’ stockpiles --before and after various Trump tariff deadlines.
Together those items undercut what likely was the strongest increase in consumer spending since 2014. Continued solid gains in jobs and wages prevented growth from sinking into the doldrums -- at least for now.
The GDP report is unlikely to make much difference in a widely anticipated Federal Reserve move next week to cut interest rates by a quarter point. But the data will provide more detail on the state of the U.S. economy to help frame the central bank’s thinking on whether to follow up with additional easing this year, as investors are predicting.
Business investment “slowed more than we thought,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, who projected a 0.5% drop amid weakness in equipment and structures. “It’s that pronounced slowing that led us and others to call for Fed rate cuts.”
The report, which will include annual revisions to data going back to 2014, is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington.
While the 1.8% growth estimate isn’t far below the average rate during a relatively tepid expansion, it would still be the weakest since Trump took office in the first quarter of 2017. And it would mark a sharp decline from the 3.1% pace at the start of 2019.
The Trump administration targets annual growth of 3% and the president has frequently complained that the Fed’s interest-rate increases under Chairman Jerome Powell have held back the economy.