A measure of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell deeper into contraction, posting the weakest reading since the end of the last recession as a global slowdown and the U.S.-China trade war increasingly weigh on the sector.
The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index slipped to 47.8 in September, the lowest since June 2009, according to data Tuesday. The figure missed all estimates in a Bloomberg survey that had called for an increase from August’s 49.1.
Treasury yields plummeted and U.S. stocks swung to losses on the report. The group’s production gauge slipped to a 10-year low while the employment measure also dropped to the lowest since January 2016. That’s a worrying sign before a jobs report Friday that’s forecast to show private payroll growth remains subdued.
The second straight reading below 50 -- the line separating expansion and contraction -- extends the drop from a 14-year high just over a year earlier and raised concern about a recession even after two straight interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Slowing global growth has damped demand for manufactured goods at home and abroad while trade policy uncertainty has disturbed supply chains and put hiring plans on hold.
The report was “quite weak, consistent with significant export-led weakening in manufacturing continuing,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd., said in a note. But it may still be too early for alarm, as “so far at least, the less-export-oriented non-manufacturing parts of the economy have remained reasonably solid,” he wrote.
The group said just three of 18 industries reported growth in September, the lowest total since April 2009. Contracting industries were led by apparel, leather and allied products; printing and related support activities; and wood products. The only expansions were in miscellaneous manufacturing; food, beverage and tobacco products; and chemical products.
ISM’s measure of new orders, considered a leading indicator of downturns, edged up slightly to 47.3 from an August reading that matched the weakest of this expansion. The production index declined to 47.3, while the inventories gauge fell to 46.9, the lowest since late 2016.
ISM’s trade gauges showed American producers are struggling with headwinds from abroad as well as the effects of a resurgent dollar. The measure of export orders, a proxy for overseas demand, fell to 41, the lowest level since March 2009, while the imports index remained in contraction.
The overall gauge will probably continue to be subdued unless there’s a pickup in new orders, Timothy Fiore, chair of ISM’s manufacturing survey committee, told reporters on a call. “The single biggest way to do that is to open up the new export orders,” he said. “There needs to be some relaxation here in trade.”
Precarious Position