The U.S. economic recovery’s strength has consistently surprised over the past several months, thanks in part to steadfast consumer finances that were underpinned by robust government aid and ultra-low interest rates.
Three months ago, economists were penciling in third-quarter growth at an annualized 18%. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists now shows a median projection almost double that -- a record 31.8% pace -- for the report due Thursday.
Even with such an outsize quarterly improvement, the economy still has its work cut out for it as the value of output will remain below the previous peak of $21.7 trillion at the end of 2019. Unemployment is more than double pre-crisis levels and Covid-19 is expected to restrain growth for months and possibly years to come.
A confluence of factors, though, helps explain why economists underestimated the rebound so far. For starters, some states’ Covid 19-related business lockdowns were lifted within weeks rather than months, allowing for a quick rebound in retail sales.
The government’s response -- particularly in sending many Americans $1,200 stimulus checks in April and adding $600 a week to unemployment benefits for several months -- was also key and may have been more effective than first estimated. In addition, American households had more savings as income growth outpaced spending even after subtracting government assistance.
Moreover, the rapid changes to the economy spurred analysts to rely increasingly on data from so-called high-frequency indicators such as restaurant bookings and mobile-phone movements. That allowed a more real-time picture of the recovery but also made forecasting trickier for analysts accustomed to computer models that incorporate traditional indicators.
The high-frequency data have “given some head fakes here and there,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG.
Total receipts at retailers are well above their pre-pandemic levels, while single-family housing starts and previously owned home sales are the strongest in more than 13 years. Regional manufacturing data show orders continue to mount, in part because inventories were drawn down to lean levels.
Record-low mortgage rates are driving demand in the housing market, but it has also enjoyed a shift in Americans’ living preferences -- leaving city centers in favor of the suburbs and roomier homes that can also double as personal office spaces.
“People were not sufficiently upbeat about the consumer,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, who now sees 34.1% third-quarter growth after forecasting 18% in April. “There were a lot of concerns that the fiscal stimulus in the spring boosted consumption temporarily and that as soon as that flow of money stopped that the consumer would stop spending.”