Is it possible the vast majority of polls are wrong and Trump ekes out a victory? Valliere acknowledged most pollsters don't trust their models and that landslide expectations could influence turnout.

That could be a wild card. If Columbus, Ohio, the biggest swing city in a key swing state, is buried in wind, rain and sleet on November 8, Trump supporters will vote while college kids at Ohio State who voted for Bernie Sanders may well stay home. Turnout and enthusiasm are why he expects Clinton to win by 4 percent to 6 percent and not by the landslide some are predicting.

Could Clinton accomplish much? Valliere thinks the odds are against her.

Incremental bills on issues like the Zika virus, opioids and a budget agreement are possible. Paul Ryan will try hard to initiate major tax reform, but that will be challenging.

Clinton is far more hawkish than most Democrats, and Valliere said she will look to increase defense spending to send a signal to America's friends and, more importantly, its adversaries. This could place her into more conflict with her party's left wing.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump and his supporters aren't going away. "By 2020, we could see a really serious third party," Valliere said.

That could mean no party gets 270 electoral votes, which happened in 1800 and 1876. In that case, the Senate would elect the president, with each state having one vote, giving North Dakota as much clout as California. The House would pick the vice president. It's hard to imagine everyone holding hands and smiling on their brothers if that materializes.

 

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