No Guarantee

Vanguard wasn't an overnight success in the U.S., said Ben Johnson, Morningstar's director of passive research in Europe and Asia.

"It was a process that was decades in the making," Johnson, Morningstar's director of passive research in Europe and Asia, said in a telephone interview.

Vanguard's limited name recognition and the lack of a prominent "evangelist" like Bogle in the U.K. advocating for index funds makes it likely the firm's progress will be gradual, Johnson said.

"It is not a guarantee they will succeed, but over the long term, the odds are in their favor," he said.

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