Mills added that the “medical, economic and market outcome of Covid-19 will be a significant factor in the 2020 election.” If the situation deteriorates, he sees better chances for Biden and a greater probability of an all-Democratic government. On the other hand, “should Covid-19 avoid the worse-case scenarios/the economy and market have a significant second-half recovery, the momentum is likely to swing back towards Trump.”
Bernstein, Lance Wilkes
Given Biden’s push to expand Obamacare rather than move to a single-payer system, his wins are positive for managed care and hospitals and “should reduce the uncertainty discount applied to the sector.”
Health insurers focused on Medicaid and individual insurance, like Centene Corp. and Anthem Inc., may benefit the most. Centene fell as much as 4.3% Wednesday, while Anthem lost as much as 2.9%.
Cantor, Steven Halper
Buy the weakness in health insurers as chances of a single-payer system got even slimmer.
The sector is being tamped down by “overdone” fears on the spread of the coronavirus, but “valuation levels of managed care stocks should increase as the likelihood of Mr. Biden’s nomination increases.”
Cowen, Chris Krueger
The next scheduled catalysts are a debate on Sunday and four big primaries on Tuesday in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio, Krueger wrote. “Biden should run the table by huge margins in these states, when it will basically be over,” he said.
(Disclaimer: Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, also sought the Democratic presidential nomination. He endorsed Joe Biden on March 4.)
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.