The whole state was a mess that year and the trauma had some interesting effects that remind me of how people react to market drama.
After 2004, for a time, most people were quite nervous about any storm development. If it looked like it would rain hard, the authorities considered closing the schools. Eventually when another named storm headed our way, local officials called for evacuations. The storm was a tropical storm. That is still serious, but it is not a hurricane and it was not of a strength that would have warranted the move to evacuate before the horrid 2004 storm season.
When the storm finally did hit, it was underwhelming. It didn’t seem like much more than a bad storm and certainly not a repeat of the 2004 disasters. Some Floridians were glad the authorities were extra cautious. Other complained the authorities overreacted. These days, we all remember 2004, but there are far fewer of my neighbors obsessed with the weather channel.
We see a similar pattern with investors since the 2008 crisis. For some period, many were hypersensitive to market fluctuations and news about the economy or markets. As time went on, most realized that the gyrations around European debt, the U.S. debt ceiling and ratings downgrade, the fiscal cliff and the like were just unpleasant storms and not Category 5 disasters. When the prospect of a Greek default once again made news this summer, we heard nary a peep about it from clients.
The behavior of people during the actual storms is interesting to me too. We evacuated inland even though we did not evacuate the last time a hurricane had come through the area. We reacted differently because we had kids. Our circumstances were different, so our tactics changed.
During a storm, you lose power, and it takes hours for a storm to fully run through your area. The wind howls like a freight train. Debris hitting walls or boarded windows can sound like a bomb. It isn’t safe to drink tap water. If part of the structure gets compromised, there is almost nothing you can do about it while the storm rages. You just have to be patient, and wait for the storm to run its course. Riding out a storm is a challenge for adults but no place for kids, so we evacuated.
The main reason people do not evacuate is they want to get to the work of cleaning up as quickly as possible. In the aftermath of the 2004 storms, anxiety levels were high for months because people wanted their houses repaired fast. It just wasn’t possible. Significant damage takes time to fix. How many people made rash financial decisions during and after the 2008 crisis in an effort to get back what was lost?
There is always a contingent of people that won’t evacuate out of some odd sense of bravado. They are defiant and insist no storm will make them leave. They will stay and “defend their property”. They remind me a bit of the people who just “won’t stand for losing money”. I remember a commercial in which the guy proudly exclaimed he wasn’t just going to “take it on the chin in this market”. OK, tough guy. Try not to hurt yourself.
A local news report said the leading cause of death in the 2004 storm season was electrocution. Apparently, several of the people that stayed behind got zapped by downed power lines while trying to clean up the moment they could get outside or by the generator they bought to provide power after a storm. Their efforts to fight the prevailing environment cost them dearly.
The most revolting behavior after a storm though comes from the hundreds of scammers that descend on the area posing as legitimate repair or damage mitigation outfits. Bogus roofing, debris removal and hurricane shutter companies ran rampant. I think of these scammers when I see some of the aggressive tactics of some people offering some guaranteed products, alternative investments and “fat-tail” products.