Global Growth
With slowing global growth pushing the Fed to pause on interest-rate hikes, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. researchers have come up with a handy way to figure how much a world slowdown affects the U.S. economy. They say that for every 1 percentage-point decline in growth outside the U.S., American expansion is reduced by about half a point. The economists currently figure a 14 percent chance of a U.S. recession over the next year; that rises to 46 percent with a 3 percentage-point decline in global growth, according to a report Wednesday.
Hard Data
Ultimately, any evidence of a recession will come in principal indicators of the U.S. economy, including employment, incomes and hours worked; business sales; and of course, gross domestic product. Those are some of the figures reviewed by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of the start and end dates of U.S. recessions. So far, those numbers aren’t close to flashing red, but when they do, it will probably be too late for any recession predictions.
This article provided by Bloomberg News.