December’s end is when we reflect on what we hope to improve in the year to come … and also the time for my annual predictions of news headlines for the next 12 months.
Usually I begin by evaluating last year’s predictions, but this year only one bears mention: For the second time in the past three years, I correctly called the long-shot winner of the World Series. I predicted that the Washington Nationals would win in 2019, and I predicted that the Atlanta Braves would win in 2021.
Apart from that, when it came to 2021, my crystal ball was cloudy. (Whose wasn’t?) But it’s clearing. Here, then, are my predictions for 2022. It’s up to readers to guess which ones are offered with tongue in cheek:
1. Worried about the blockchain, members of Congress will continue demanding regulation of cryptocurrency. To the relief of investors, federal agencies will move at their usual glacial pace. Nevertheless, the House and the Senate will continue to hide ridiculous rules on the subject in the middle of thick bills ostensibly dealing with other issues. Curiously, nobody in the news media will venture to ask any member who’s upset about crypto to explain what “blockchain” means.
2. Relatedly, federal agencies confronted with evidence that their systems have been penetrated will continue their habit of stonewalling. But worry not. Thanks to the infrastructure bill, the government’s digital networks, which have fallen well behind China’s and Russia’s, stand an even chance of having 2022-level security in place by 2027.
3. Continuing my habit of picking long shots to win the World Series, I’ll go with the San Diego Padres over the Boston Red Sox. (I know, but I bet you felt the same way last year when I picked Atlanta.)
4. In 2022, the Greenland ice sheet will dissolve a bit faster than it did this past summer, when it melted at a good 40% to 50% above what not long ago was the normal rate. Although the melting rate has proved difficult to predict, several models have it doubling before the end of the 21st century. As always, without exciting video, people will have trouble focusing on what’s happening in Greenland, perhaps because the damage from the ice loss will occur so far in the future.
5. In other climate news, the internet’s carbon footprint, which in 2017 stood at 3.7% of global emissions (higher than all but two countries), will continue to skyrocket as people keep working and entertaining from home. By the end of 2022, only China will generate more greenhouse gasses. (Yes, there’s some double-counting, but you see the point.)
6. While we’re on the subject of carbon emissions, with so many people staying home, content providers will ramp up their recent practice of releasing episodes weekly rather than dropping a season all at once, reducing further the difference between legacy television and streaming services. Here’s how this relates to climate change: Streaming in HD generates a carbon footprint 20 times that of watching the same content in standard format.
7. More on movies: “Babylon” will be the year’s critical darling. The box office champion will be “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” by a landslide. Also, “Killers of the Flower Moon” will be an unexpected hit, because who wouldn’t pay to watch “Yellowstone” as interpreted by Martin Scorsese?
8. A new, highly transmissible Covid-19 variant will appear in Western Europe in the fall. The U.S. will respond by banning travelers arriving from southern Africa.