The fate of President Joe Biden’s $4 trillion economic vision for the U.S. now rests with the lawmakers turning his infrastructure and social-spending plans into legislation that can get through a narrowly divided Congress.
Congress approved his $1.9 trillion coronavirus-relief plan in March, largely intact and less than two months after it was proposed. This time Biden has put forth the $2.3 trillion American Jobs Plan focused on infrastructure, manufacturing and corporate tax increases, and the $1.8 trillion American Families Plan composed mainly of social spending and tax hikes on wealthy individuals.
Passing the spending and tax increases envisioned by Biden will depend on where lawmakers can find compromise. But without the urgency of the pandemic—and with Democrats less united on the overall size of the proposals than they were in approving the aid package—the plans could be debated by Congress well into the fall or even 2022.
Here’s what to watch for as Congress starts to debate legislative language based on the White House proposals.
How Many Pieces
The number, size and scope of bills passed by Congress will depend on bipartisan agreement on at least one part—likely physical infrastructure—and whether Democrats can hold together on other elements.
The White House is more willing to try a bipartisan agreement with Republicans at least on the infrastructure portion. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have yet to lay out out a legislative strategy, beyond backing moderate Democrats’ calls for bipartisan cooperation and endorsing a goal among progressives of tackling prescription drug prices.
If Democrats and Republicans manage to approve a bipartisan bill, the focus will then turn to whether Congress can pass one or more Democratic-only social spending and tax bills. It’s also possible Congress could just pass smaller bipartisan bills, like a China-focused manufacturing plan.
If bipartisan talks fall apart, the focus would turn to whether Democrats can pass one or more bills by themselves. A Democrat-only bill could also potentially follow a bipartisan compromise on infrastructure. And of course, Congress could also succumb to gridlock on subsequent bills, or on the entire Biden package.
Talks On Infrastructure
The focus is now on talks between the White House and moderate GOP senators led by West Virginia’s Shelley Moore Capito on a path forward for an infrastructure bill. Capito has laid out a $568 billion counteroffer, centered on more traditional items like road and bridge construction.
The Senate is on recess this week, returning May 10. Two days later, Biden will meet at the White House with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other top congressional leaders. A lack of progress in the talks with Republicans by this gathering could be a sign of trouble.
Both the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee are aiming to hold votes on surface transportation bills by the end of May. Signs of agreement, especially on climate-related spending such as on electric vehicle charging stations, would bode well for a bipartisan bill passing in the summer.
More broadly, key players to watch include moderate Democrats such as West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema and Virginia’s Mark Warner. Others include Tom Carper and Chris Coons of Delaware and Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire as well as independent Angus King of Maine.
These members place a high value on bipartisanship, and have signaled they may be uncomfortable moving to a Democratic-only bill without a concrete effort at compromise. At the same time, if bipartisan talks fail, Democrats could pass also one or more bills on their own.