Yet, there are troubling exceptions, and this might explain why big declines make everyone so worried. For example, it has been 30 years since Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average index hit its high and it remains about 44 percent below its 1989 peak. (And it did take a long time for the Dow -- almost 25 years -- to reach its 1929 pre-crash high.)
One annoying trope that gets used at times like the fourth quarter is that U.S. markets are turning Japanese, and that a long and maybe endless doldrums awaits us. Of course, this premise never accounts for the fact that in 1989 the price-earnings ratio of the Nikkei was 60 times trailing 12 month earnings. That's more than triple the valuation of the S&P 500 today.
So no, the U.S. isn't turning Japanese, and the probability is that the outlook for markets is bullish. Markets have shown they recover in due time. Eventually, the U.S. will figure out its trade and budget issues -- maybe we'll even get past this moment of political discord. That's the better -- and more rational -- bet to make.
This column was provided by Bloomberg News.