It hasn’t so far, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists say not to expect it to. They argue that tariffs will make other countries’ exports more costly, which will likely reduce the quantity and value of imports into the U.S. But, they add, U.S. exports will also fall, not only because of other countries’ retaliatory tariffs, but also because the costs for U.S. firms producing goods for export will rise and make U.S. exports less competitive on the world market. The end result is likely to be lower imports and lower exports, with little or no improvement in the trade deficit.

6. Are trade deficits as simple as exports minus imports?

Short answer? Yes. Long answer? Still yes, but there’s more to the story -- and this is where it gets complicated. Most of the world calculates trade deficits by subtracting total imports from total exports. Within total exports, however, there are two subcategories: domestic exports and re-exports. Domestic exports are things made or improved in the U.S. and then exported. Re-exports are goods, such as autos, that come into the U.S. and are sent back out, unchanged. They both count as total exports.

7. How might Trump change the calculation?

Early in Trump’s presidency, some media reported that he wanted to calculate the trade balance without re-exports, a category that also includes inventories and used goods, which are key components of the global supply chain. Trump’s chief trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, later said the current way re-exports are tallied in trade data led to "wrong numbers" for much of the world and that "hopefully it’s something that we’re going to sort out" in negotiations to rewrite the North American Free Trade Agreement. By not counting re-exports, Trump hopes to make the trade deficit look much bigger, handing him more leverage in trade talks and more justification for tariffs. The problem is that excluding re-exports would overstate the deficit unless they are excluded from imports, too.

8. Does anybody else want to change the formula?

Yes, but not the way Trump does. Most economists think the traditional exports-minus-imports worldview is outdated. An iPhone has parts manufactured and designed in dozens of countries, but because China finishes the product, it gets an outsized portion of the credit. A better method would evenly distribute credit along the supply chain, so that each country’s trade balance depends on the value of its contributions. This method would cut the U.S.’s trade deficit with China by about 50 percent, according to a recent estimate using 2014 data.

9. Who benefits from trade?

A famous study in 1999 documented that trade in general helped lead to a burst of economic growth in developing countries. That helped emerging economies become consumers of exported U.S. goods, which created American jobs. Also, when imports exceed exports, jobs lost to cheaper labor overseas over time were often balanced with better-paying jobs domestically. Other studies have shown that foreign competition helps make American producers more efficient.

10. And what about the losers?