Projecting timetables for widespread distribution of Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. and around the world is rife with uncertainty, even if the products presented prove reliably safe and effective. Given the many challenges, the process is unlikely to be as quick as many want to believe.
In light of the positive trial results announced this week by Pfizer Inc. [NYSE: PFE] and German partner BioNTech SE [NASDAQ: BNTX], it seems the U.S. and Western Europe will be out with approved vaccines possibly in mid-2021. Emerging markets are likely to follow in 2022 or thereafter.
Pfizer reported that its COVID vaccine achieved 90% effectiveness in preventing symptomatic disease. The rate of effectiveness is clearly above expectations, and it should help to drive a higher rate of vaccine acceptance. Pfizer, however, needs to continue the trial to accrue more safety data. This data validates the spike protein as a vaccine target, which suggests that other programs, particularly that of Moderna [NASDAQ: MRNA], are likely to work, as well. Each has a promising two-part vaccine in trials of 30,000-50,000 people.
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) is spending tremendous amounts of time working on treatments and vaccines for Covid-19. Communications during the pandemic have not been uniform across the agency, but we have gleaned hints as to how approvals could progress.
Many other highly capable companies are also working on new vaccines, including Johnson & Johnson [NYSE: JNJ] and AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN]. With such ample resources devoted to solving the problem, equally good—if not ultimately superior—alternatives could still emerge.
The key factors for regulatory approval are the vaccine’s effectiveness along with ease of manufacturing. The logistical challenges will be substantial as well, given the potential need for two doses for every recipient. Nevertheless, if these elements fall in line, emergency use authorizations could be issued in the U.S. as early as December.
Here’s the most important thing: Based on the initial results of Pfizer’s trial, it appears their vaccine is effective in preventing symptomatic disease. This could allow vaccinations of those at highest risk, including frontline medical personnel as well as nursing home workers and residents. After that, inoculations will go successively down through the age ranges, with the elderly and highest risk first and the youngest last.
Broad inoculation could begin in the first quarter of 2021 but the second quarter is more realistic. For full inoculation and the return of an unfettered U.S. economy, investors should look out to the third or even fourth quarters of 2021 at the earliest.
Vaccines and treatments will take longer to reach emerging markets. It could be 2022 or even 2023 before we see substantial vaccination rates worldwide.
But developing the vaccine and manufacturing it are only two of the elements necessary to stop the spread of the virus. This element is equally important: Governments and manufacturers must emphasize that only vaccines that have been deemed safe and effective will be released for broad use.