There is significant question over whether governments—particularly in the U.S., where the issue is often raised—can mandate that citizens receive the vaccine. Typically, mandates come at the local level—think elementary schools that require children to receive the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, for example.
We know that vaccines work most effectively when high numbers of people are inoculated, leaving few hosts who can transmit the disease. This creates herd immunity. If too many refuse inoculation, concerted efforts may be necessary to convince people to line up for them.
Medical facilities and other workplaces with large concentrations of older or at-risk people may require that employees get vaccinated. Large U.S. employers may not make it a requirement but they could strongly encourage employees to do so, or they could prevent the unvaccinated from coming into their workplaces.
Will this lead to a high percentage of children in the developed world being inoculated by the end of 2021? Will schools be able to fully open?
If most U.S. residents are vaccinated by then, the end of uncertainty surrounding the spread of the virus will, I hope, lead to a full economic recovery in the developed world.
Any information, statement or opinion set forth herein is general in nature, is not directed to or based on the financial situation or needs of any particular investor, and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice, forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or a recommendation with respect to any particular security or investment strategy or type of retirement account. Investors seeking financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies should consult their financial professional.
Marshall Gordon is director and senior research analyst for health care at ClearBridge Investments.