Central banks have tried to support growth and inflation by taking duration, and thus term premium, out of the market.
The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that QE compresses term premium, precisely one of the mechanisms targeted by central banks to influence the economy. In this context, the long road to recovery from the COVID-induced economic carnage will likely keep asset purchases a key feature of stimulus efforts, especially in the coming months. But … there is an inherent drift in the current policy to see QE purchase less of the net issuance — especially in the US. Our expectation is that the Fed will extend the weighted-average-maturity of Treasury purchases, which would help to prevent a large rise in the term premium, though not push it lower, as other factors work through.
Still, in a BMO survey asking whether the Fed will extend its weighted-average maturity in December, 56% of respondents said no, while 44% anticipate the change will be formalized.
This is a rather unusual rift for a policy move that could have lasting implications for the level of long-term yields and the shape of the curve. In congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the central bank was in no hurry to taper its bond buying but also gave no signal that it was ready to necessarily do more, either. He and other officials have made the point that purchasing $120 billion a month of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities is already a huge sum based on precedent. They won’t have much of a chance to provide more clarity — policy makers are now in their self-imposed quiet period before their decision next week.
One potential wild card: Quantitative strategists at Nomura Holdings warned last week that systematic players known as commodity trading advisors might ditch all of their long positions in Treasuries if the 10-year yield reaches 1.02%. If that happened, the benchmark could quickly jump to 1.2%. The 10-year note hasn’t sold off that much over a calendar week since June.
Jeffrey Rosenberg, senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said Friday on Bloomberg TV: “93 basis points, 100 basis points, 125 basis points, it’s really about the pace of increase that the Fed will concern itself with. So if you’re talking about in the next six months, a gradual increase in interest rates, I don’t think the Fed needs to react to that. What the Fed would be reacting to would be a very sharp rise in interest rates. Certainly we saw that during the taper tantrum — they react to big moves because that’s disruptive to financial market conditions, to financial market functioning.”
Quant freakout notwithstanding, it’s hard to make a ironclad case for the Fed to rush to extend the average maturity of its bond purchases next week. Across Wall Street, bond traders have been conditioned to expect the central bank to keep short-term rates near zero for the next few years at a minimum and, at least in 2021, not to test the long end too much. At their November meeting, officials discussed updating their forward guidance on the pace of bond buying fairly soon. That seems like the kind of low-hanging fruit that Powell can build consensus around while advocating for additional fiscal aid to anyone who will listen on Capitol Hill.
If 10-year yields glide upward and exceed 1% as a result of such long-awaited fiscal stimulus, it seems like a tradeoff the central bank would be more than happy to make. The Fed’s threat of yield-curve control is enough to keep the world’s biggest bond market in check.
Brian Chappatta is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering debt markets. He previously covered bonds for Bloomberg News. He is also a CFA charterholder.