In September 2015, Wade Pfau and Wade Dokken authored an article in Financial Advisor examining how the famous 4% rule would have worked for a 60% stock/40% bond portfolio over 30-year periods between 1900 and 2013. Americans and Danes would have enjoyed a 95% success rate, while Canadians and New Zealanders would have fared better. Most Europeans would have seen a success rate of 76% or less.
“The safest thing is to assume the next 20 years will continue,” Marston concluded. “Maybe we’ll be pleasantly surprised.”