The worst may be over for the world economy’s deepest slowdown in a decade.
A wave of interest-rate cuts by central banks including the Federal Reserve and mounting hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal are buoying confidence in financial markets just as key economic indicators show signs of stabilization after recent declines.
While a robust rebound may still not be on the cards, the relative improvement could put an end to the fears of just a few weeks ago that the world economy was barreling toward recession. Such an environment looks for now to be enough for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and fellow monetary policy makers to take a pause from doling out monetary stimulus.
“We do see multiple reasons for a stabilization in global growth in 2020 versus 2019,” said David Mann, chief economist for Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore, who shares the International Monetary Fund’s expectation that global growth will accelerate next year.
Among the reasons for confidence: While JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s global manufacturing index contracted for a sixth month in October, it nonetheless advanced for a third month as output and orders firmed.
In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of factory activity stabilized in October while the government’s jobs report on Friday showed payroll gains exceeded forecasts and hiring in the previous two months was revised much higher. The ISM’s gauge of services is also showing signs of improvement.
In Europe, there are also tentative signs of health after it was squeezed by the trade war as well as Brexit. The euro-area economy expanded more than forecast in the third quarter and while Germany may already be in recession, the Ifo Institute reported that expectations among its manufacturers edged up in October.
As for Asia, inventories of semiconductors in South Korea fell the most in more than two years in September in a sign a slump in global technology is ending.
Financial markets are tuning into the optimism. U.S. stock benchmarks climbed to all-time highs on Monday and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose. European and Asian stocks have also advanced.
“I just look at the fiscal/monetary mix, it’s the most stimulative that I think I’ve ever seen,” said billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones on Tuesday. “It’s no wonder that the stock market’s hitting new highs. It’s literally the most conducive environment, certainly in the short run, for economic growth and strength that I’ve ever seen.”