I don’t think it can. Either the US GDP (and the rest of the world’s) will ramp or the S&P results will disappoint.
One scenario is great for the bulls. The other is not.
Valuations imply the GDP ramp is in the cards. I don’t feel as certain. Am not willing to short US equities because that’s been such a widow-maker… but no way am I buying here. Am very underweight US equities and am waiting (for what feels like an eternity) to be a buyer.
I confess I’m a dip buyer. No shame in that. I just need the dip to be meaningful. At these valuations, I think that’s going to take more than a 10% decline. Yikes. I’m not predicting that correction by the way. I’m just saying that I don’t see value in any run-of-the-mill selloff.
I might be on the sidelines for a long time.
See you Tuesday, have a great weekend.
-Mike
