Only hindsight will prove one camp right and wrong.
For me, a cautious bear, I think the fact pattern is becoming more favorable to the downside even though most facts are unchanged. Valuation hasn’t changed, GDP outlook hasn’t changed, central bank policy hasn’t changed.
Sentiment changed. There is growing doubt out there.
This is critical because sentiment is the only thing that matters when it comes to the tape in the short term.
I’m guessing that bulls are going to re-push the tape higher. They aren’t about to fold when the world looks essentially the same as it did yesterday.
But I also think that there are tea leaves to read here. I read them and think that long/overweight is not the right investment posture.
See youtomorrow
-Mike
