Underweight equities relative to what used to be normal. It is still true that the private sector is in the best position to cope with big changes to the economic landscape because businesses are in direct touch with "the marketplace" where decisions are made by real people with skin in the game. So we want to be stockholders. But the business climate is going to be intensely competitive, and valuation pressures will affect even the best stocks.
Focus on competitive advantages. Don't buy indexes. There is no more tide of credit and consumer demand to lift all the barges. This time around there will be losers as well as winners. Invest in businesses that can grow by gaining market share against weaker competitors (or own mutual funds that can do that for you).
Dividends matter. Historically, dividends have accounted for about half of the total return on stocks. With less top-line growth, that will be true again. Invest in companies with the balance sheet and cash-flow potential to grow their payouts.
Consider avoiding Europe and Japan. Their demographics are worse than ours, their societies less adaptable to changing circumstances and their public balance sheets probably worse as well.
Overweight emerging markets, perhaps even dramatically. But be selective and average in over time since this is a volatile asset class. Not all "emerging" economies are created equal. Transparency is always a concern, and whether citizens are increasingly free is probably the most critical variable to evaluate and monitor. The less developed world is early in the industrialization cycle.
With emerging economies' access to modern technology and capital from the West, their productivity gains could eclipse even the West's wonderful economic history.
Fixed income: high quality, short term and more corporate than government. Lending money is more dangerous than we have experienced until recently. Keep your eye on the inflation/deflation issues.
The world economy is at an inflection point that will bring exciting opportunities and frightening risks. A thoughtful advisor with a sensible strategy will be worth his or her weight in gold.
