It's that time of year when everyone is coming back from summer vacation, having spent a few bucks on our families to fight off the threat of recession. And, if you believe the news out of Washington, your vacation bankroll should have required hip-hop sized pockets to hold that whopping $300 tax "rebate" check sent to you courtesy of "Dubya."
I can tell you that I sure put that tax cut to good use during my family's recent vacation to Disney World. Yessirree, George ... it was truly a lifesaver. Those Dubya Dollars just covered the cost of the bottled water at the theme parks to keep the kids from going comatose from the heat and the ambulance ride for Grandmom and Granddad.
But this simple event-spending my tax rebate on vacation-triggered a near-catharsis of investment insight that must be shared with all financial advisors. You see, there has been a lot of debate about exactly how much economic stimulus will result from the Bush tax cut and in what sectors it will be manifested. From what I've seen, the $300 "chicken" sent to the pots of Americans this summer as a tax-cut "appetizer" was plucked, basted, baked and gobbled down before the envelope it came in hit the floor. Since the consumption of tax cuts will help corporate earnings, financial advisors would like to know which companies or industries are going to benefit when the full tax "entree" is served. That way we get our clients into the right stocks before the P/E multiples go from the current paltry 30 to a healthier, tax-cut-induced 35 or even 40.
So, I undertook ambitious research to determine where the "Dubya Dividend" would be spent and which products, companies or industries looked bullish as a result. To do so, I interviewed high-profile people to see what they did with their $300 appetizer. The following summarizes the responses and identifies the companies, industries or products that may benefit if other Americans follow the lead of these trendsetters. With all humility, I must advise you that this could prove to be the Rosetta stone for ferreting out this year's big gainers.
Stocked the kids' apartments with summer snacks and beverages so they wouldn't have to go out to buy the goodies themselves. Company, industry to benefit: Budweiser, Coors, Frito-Lay
Bought Dad a home/office CO2 detector and a day trip as a harpooner on a Norwegian whaling vessel. Company, industry to benefit: Sentry Inc., Black & Decker, Starkist
Sent an autographed, gold plated monopoly game to Judge Thomas Pennfield Jackson as a thank you. Company, industry to benefit: Parker Brothers, Toys "R" Us
(The above excludes the estimated $100+ billion tax cut Gates will receive from elimination of the estate tax in 2011. Speculation is that he is negotiating the purchase of a large getaway "ranch" with the savings-aka South Dakota.)
Combined his $300 rebate with frequent flier credits to purchase an in-home lie detector kit. Company, industry to benefit: LieBusters.com
Paid orthopedic surgeon for two artificial thigh transplants, after logging 800,000 miles on the originals. Company, industry to benefit: Genentech Inc.
Contributed $300 to a private interest group lobbying for campaign-finance reform. Company, industry to benefit: D.C. office buildings, ad agencies
Spent all $300 in local drug stores-$20 for blood-pressure medication and the rest for male birth-control products. Company, industry to benefit: Rite-Aid Drugs, CVS Inc.
Bought inventory-control software to give to the supervisors at the FBI. Company, industry to benefit: Cisco-Eagle, TrackerSystems Inc.
Flew to Milwaukee and bought from the Antiques Road Show the one piece of furniture he left in the Oval Office. Company, industry to benefit: PBS, Christie's, Sotheby's
W.C. Ford Jr. (chairman of Ford)
Traded in his loaded Explorer and bought a Mitsubishi Monterro. Company, industry to benefit: Mitsubishi
Takashi Sonobe (CEO of Mitsubishi)
Bought ten 100-pound sand bags for his family's Mitsubishi Monterro. Company, industry to benefit: Honda, Toyota
Emergency fast food supplies to restore vital minerals and nutrition to his body following a prolonged, two-day hunger strike in protest of the U.S. Navy's bombing of the island of Vieques. Company, industry to benefit: MacDonald's Inc., Krispy Kreme
Contributed entire tax cut to the Democratic candidate for governor of Florida. Company, industry to benefit: Voting machine manufacturers
Nancy Normal (housewife)
Used joint $600 rebate for an oil change and fill-up of her Chevrolet Suburban. Company, industry to benefit: Exxon/Mobil
Commenced search of New York City Records to find lost Manhattan Indian tribe, claim ancestral land in Central Park and apply for a casino license. Company, industry to benefit: MGM Mirage Inc.
To curry favor with New York City voters, paid John Rocker to stand in Times Square for one hour without a body guard. Company, industry to benefit: KaiserPermanente, Midlantic Hospital Corp.
Bought mail-order Depak Chopra course on finding inner peace and controlling aggression. Company, industry to benefit: Chopra Industries