American decline is a popular narrative these days. It’s a central feature of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign -- you can’t “make America great again” unless America isn’t-so-great right now.
Although Trump often seems disconnected from reality, on this issue he has a point. The U.S. is in decline. Fortunately, the slide isn’t severe, and there’s probably time to arrest its progress or prevent it from accelerating.
When we say a nation is in decline that can mean several things. Historically, it meant a fall in living standards and the level of economic development. When the Roman Empire declined, the population of Rome shrank, roads crumbled and the empire’s ships disappeared from the ocean. Eventually the European continent fell back into poverty and violence among regional and city-state powers.
The same thing happened to China after the fall of the Han Dynasty, and again after the fall of the Qing Dynasty.
Nothing of the kind threatens the U.S. today. Yet it is true that the economic well-being of the average American -- defined as median household income -- has fallen since the turn of the century:
That’s bad news, obviously, although much of that effect is due to shrinking household size and an influx of low-skilled immigrants. When you adjust for those factors, median income is probably little changed rather than falling.
And during that time, technological improvements have made life more enjoyable and leisure more rewarding. We have smartphones and social media now. Our houses are much larger, and most of us are living longer.
So the true standard of living in the U.S. is still going up, it’s just doing so at a very slow rate. The U.S. isn’t about to turn into Rome or the Qing Dynasty. Manhattan won’t become overgrown with weeds, and travelers from distant lands won’t come to gawk at the ruins of the White House.
But there are other senses in which a nation can decline. For example, it can slip in power, wealth and prestige relative to other countries. In this sense, the U.S. has clearly declined.
The U.S.’s main rivals in the past -- Europe, Japan and Russia -- are weaker than they used to be. But this isn’t a good thing. With the exception of Russia, those countries -- the other rich democracies -- are the U.S.’s main allies in the world. It’s pretty bad to feel proud of your health because all your friends got sick.