One year ago, Jeffrey Gundlach offered a mostly cautious outlook after what he called “the year no one made money.” As it turned out, 2019 was a year pretty much anyone could cash in -- on stocks, bonds, commodities, even Bitcoin.
DoubleLine Capital’s chief investment officer will discuss his outlook for 2020 on Tuesday when he hosts his annual “Just Markets” webcast. Gundlach will likely comment on his usual array of topics, from his outlook for gold to his concern about the U.S. budget deficit. He may also address this year’s U.S. presidential election.
Here’s what Gundlach predicted a year ago and what happened.
Emerging Markets
What he said: After years of under-performance, this is a good time to invest in emerging market equities “relativistically.”
What happened: The MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 19% last year, compared with 27% for the MSCI All World Index and 31% for the S&P 500 Index.
Europe
What he said: The stocks are “a value trap.”
What happened: The Euro Stoxx 50 returned 27% in dollar terms, the most since 2013. London’s FTSE 100 added 17% in local currency and 22% in dollar terms.
Dollar
What he said: If the Fed becomes less hawkish, the dollar would probably weaken.
What happened: The dollar hit its lowest point of 2019 on Jan. 9. The Fed went on to cut interest rates three times and the dollar index ended December little changed from where it started 2019.
Oil and Commodities
What he said: There could be a zigzag pattern in energy prices and commodities.
What happened: The Bloomberg commodities index zigzagged to a 5.4% gain in 2019. Oil prices climbed 34%, and they rallied early in 2020 as U.S.-Iran tensions flared.