Is President Obama's health reform law a job killer? Republicans seized on a new high-profile analysis of the Affordable Care Act this week to ram home that oft-repeated talking point.
But the report, issued this week by the Congressional Budget Office, actually says something quite different: Jobs won't be destroyed, but more Americans will choose to work fewer hours because of the ACA's structure, which subsidizes the cost of health insurance for households with low- and middle-range incomes.
The upshot is likely to be something I've suspected all along: The ACA will create work options for people over age 50 as they move toward retirement, because it creates opportunities to get health insurance outside the workplace.
The CBO projects the total number of hours Americans work will drop by the equivalent of 2 million full-time jobs in 2017. The CBO is the final word on legislative analysis in Washington, and this study immediately set off a political firestorm.
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) jumped on it quickly. "For years, Republicans have said that the president's healthcare law creates uncertainty for small businesses, hurts take-home pay and makes it harder to invest in new workers," Boehner said in a statement on Tuesday. "The middle class is getting squeezed in this economy, and this CBO report confirms that Obamacare is making it worse."
Meanwhile, many news headlines and cable pundits spun the study, stating that the ACA will push 2 million workers out of the labor market (conveniently omitting the words "equivalent of").
Pretty shameless, considering that the CBO report also knocks down two other baseless attacks on the ACA––that insurance premiums are skyrocketing, and that employers will shift more workers to part-time status to avoid including them in group coverage.
On the first charge, the CBO says premiums on the health exchanges are 15 percent lower than forecast. On the second, it says there's "no compelling evidence" this is occurring.
Nonetheless, the "job killer" cudgel will be used by Republicans to beat up Democrats in this year's midterm elections.
So, what did the CBO really say? First, it's important to note that the report's findings aren't just about older workers––the CBO also reports that low-income workers may strive to keep earnings down to qualify for Medicaid coverage under the ACA. But it does specifically cite older workers as one of the key groups likely to cut back on work.