LPL Financial has confidence the U.S. economy will continue on its slow growth trajectory for the rest of 2016, LPL said in its Midyear Outlook 2016 issued Wednesday.
LPL, a retail investment advisory firm and independent broker-dealer, also feels the bull market investors have seen since March 2009 will continue, despite some volatility.
The economy should see a 2 percent to 2.5 percent growth rate for the rest of the year based upon expectations of a dollar tailwind, stable oil prices, steady consumer spending, record high household net worth, and a slowing, but still solid, labor market, the report says.
LPL Research says returns for the S&P 500 will range in the middle single digits, driven by earnings growth in the mid- to high-single-digits during the second half 2016. However, investors need to be ready to experience more volatility in the coming months.
The bond market will improve marginally, LPL predicts, with high-quality bond returns increasing in the low- to mid-single-digit range, which is an improvement from recent flat returns.
Because of Brexit and other factors, LPL says the Federal Reserve Board will wait until at least December before initiating another rate hike and may put it off altogether for this year.
LPL Research remains cautious in its global outlook, but it continues to look for opportunities, especially in emerging markets.
"We may be entering the eighth year of this economic recovery and bull market, but that doesn't mean the memories of the Great Recession have faded away; and the volatility we've seen this year revives those memories and takes an emotional toll," says Burt White, LPL Financial chief investment officer.
"A vote of confidence means having the belief that someone or something has the ability to succeed. It is more than being positive or negative, a bull or a bear. It is about trusting our assessments of the opportunities and risks that may lie ahead, formulating a solid investment plan, and sticking with it through the ups and downs we may face in the coming months and beyond," White says.