Obama’s Paris Climate Push Likely To Survive Republican Foes

Absent a court ruling against the EPA rules, he said, "you really have to go in and modify the Clean Air Act, and I think there is very little appetite for doing that."

State Compliance

States also may be well on their way to complying with the Clean Power Plan by the time court challenges to the regulation are resolved. Lawyers following the matter expect the regulation’s fate ultimately will rest with the Supreme Court.

In rolling out the carbon dioxide emission limits for new power plants and the Clean Power Plan for existing facilities, the EPA cast the measures as essential to safeguard public health and the environment.

Even a future administration is somewhat bound by that justification, said Potts, the lawyer specializing in the Clean Air Act.

“If EPA comes out with a big rule and says this is necessary to protect public health and air quality,” he said, “it’s really hard for the next administration to do a 180” without running afoul of a law blocking agencies from “arbitrary and capricious” actions.

Most of the Republicans seeking to replace Obama in next year’s election are vowing to reverse an environmental agenda they say would harm the U.S. economy. New York real estate mogul Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas question whether there’s even a problem.

“There is no way any reasonable person can conclude that the most immediate threat we face to our security is what the climate is going to look like in 25 or 30 years,” Florida Senator Marco Rubio said at a town hall in New Hampshire.

Jeb Bush, who touts his record of land conservation and watershed restoration as a former Florida governor, says the climate is changing and humans may be contributing to it. But he’s also wary of EPA regulations that may slow economic growth and has vowed to stop Obama’s carbon dioxide emissions rules.

Bush told reporters in Waterloo, Iowa on Monday that he was "uncertain" he would have even attended the summit in Paris.

The opening for the next president comes if courts rule against the EPA power rules, which would put Obama’s successor in control of determining the response.

“If it does get remanded back to the EPA -- which I’d say is at least a coin flip odds -- the president gets the way in,” Barnett, with Bloomberg Intelligence, said. “If it’s a Democrat, they probably re-propose something very similar. If it’s a Republican, I don’t think they can walk away from the issue. They can’t just say ’we won’t do anything,’ but they’ll drag their feet and do something maybe more friendly to industry.”