“So the party that’s better able to focus on economic issues and compromise will probably do better with the independents,” he said.
And another part of Friedman’s calculus pertains to the Electoral College, where a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election.
“By adding up all of the states I know will lean Democrat, they’ll have 257 electoral votes,” he said. “And if I do the same with Republicans, they'll have 191. If you look at the states that comprise those 90 electoral votes remaining, the Republicans will need to run the table on these states in order to win.
“I think the numbers favor the Democrats,” he continued. “The Democrats tend to get more minority voters, have less far to go to win the Electoral College, and I think it’s fair to say that so far they’ve focused more on economic issues and less on social issues. Based on the numbers and the negativity for Clinton versus the Republican candidates, you’d have to say the Democrats have a strong advantage heading into the general election.”
DOL Rule
On a final note, Friedman said the recent fiduciary rule from the U.S. Department of Labor wasn’t as bad as the broker-dealer industry initially feared it would be.
“Because the proposed rule was so terrible, and this rule is a significant improvement, we’re all kind of saying that maybe it’s not so bad,” he noted. “Still, in my mind this is a solution in search of a problem.”
And while he expects litigation and attempts to get an injunction by opponents of the DOL rule, ultimately he doesn’t think they will make much difference to the final outcome. “The fact the DOL backed off significantly [from its proposed rule] tells me a court case might be more difficult now.”