The San Francisco Fed study found that labor costs were a poor gauge of inflation risk.
The firm says there's a roughly one-in-four chance the U.S. will hit the so-called "X-date."
The increase lifted the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate to a target range of 5% to 5.25%, the highest level since 2007.
Historically, housing has been a critical driver of the broader business cycle.
The Fed last year raised its benchmark interest rate from nearly zero in March to 4.3% by its final meeting in December.
The Fed still worries that strong inflation might linger in 2023.
The Fed's projections for core inflation look much too high to Wall Street economists.
Prices of services excluding housing and energy services experienced their smallest increase in three months.
Lower immigration and a surge in deaths during the pandemic have also been contributing factors, the Fed chairman said.
Difference between CPI and personal consumption expenditures is the largest in decades.
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