Bill Ehrman was co-CIO for six years with Byron Wien at Century Capital Associates. He also served as CIO and partner at George Soros’ Quantum Fund for eight years and was CIO and managing partner for 16 years at EGS Partners. He recently returned to managing hedge funds to show that investing is the real way to create wealth rather than trading. He has also started a new fund group, Paix et Prospérité Funds (www.prosperitefund.com).
The global economy, including the United States, is muddling through with growth well below potential, but better than a year ago.
It seems to me that the "experts" are always following the market rather than anticipating where it will go.
The continued drop in commodity prices raised fears in the financial markets that global growth was slowing to a crawl. The result? Bond prices rose while stock prices fell.
My key takeaway from the events over the last several months is that there is no place like home.
The financial markets have been held hostage by the possibility of Greece defaulting on its debt obligations and the Fed raising rates and beginning its journey toward normalization.
Last week's major events support the view that globalization is a fact of life, influencing economies, financial markets and government policies everywhere to a greater extent every day.
Bonds will lose their luster as the yield curve steepens and there will be a rotation in the stock markets to companies that will benefit from the acceleration in global growth.
The collapse of the financial markets in 2008 reinforced risk management to a fault and, as such, hedge managers as a group have underperformed the averages for the last seven years...
Nothing moves markets more than when the heads of both the ECB and Federal Reserve Board speak about monetary policy and the economy. It certainly happened this past week!
What you choose has direct bearing on your asset allocation, regional exposure and specific investments.
Global economic growth is improving across many regions and will have lower highs and higher lows over the long term.
Now that earnings results are in for many corporations, we can breath a sigh of relief as results, at least so far, are at or near expectations despite several headwinds.
Sometimes, upsetting the status quo can be disruptive and disconcerting in the short term, but good for the long term. These types of disruptions are occurring now around the world.
The U.S economy will resume faster growth in the spring, boosted by consumer spending, milder weather and some growth overseas.