Prediction 2
Despite ongoing protectionism, the global expansion continues with the fewest countries in recession in history.
Rising trade protectionism remains a threat to the global economy, and it is one that increased in recent weeks. So far, however, the world economy has been able to look past these issues. While growth in some parts of the world may be slowing, the overall world economy remains in very good shape.
Prediction 3
Unemployment falls to the lowest level in nearly 50 years as wage growth is the highest since the Great Recession.
The first half of this prediction has come to pass as unemployment is down to 3.9 percent, matching its lowest rate in 50 years.2 Wage growth has slowly risen from 2.5 percent to 2.7 percent this year, and we expect it will get to 3 percent by the end of 2018.2
Prediction 4
The yield curve flattens (but does not invert) as the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 3 percent for the first time since 2014.